What does the future hold for South Sudan?

There are four scenarios for South Sudan's future, the worst of which is civil war.

With more than two million deaths and millions more displaced after a war that has lasted five decades, Africa's newest nation, South Sudan, is now the first country to be dubbed a "pre-failed" state.

• South Sudan, born in July 2011, failed before it even came into existence. The blame for such failure lies with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A)

• The crisis was triggered by the July 2013 decision by South Sudan's President Salva Kiir to unilaterally dismiss  several key members of his cabinet, including former vice-president Riek Machar, and to abolish SPLM/A institutions.

• The nation stands divided into three groups - the incumbent SPLM/A led by Kiir, the rebel group led by Machar and the third bloc comprising former detained SPLM/A leaders - and no single entity is able to effectively govern South Sudan.

But what course could the future of South Sudan take? There are at least four scenarios that the fluid situation in South Sudan can evolve into.

1,Best scenario: Caretaker government:  The best scenario for South Sudan is for a caretaker government composed of individuals considered independent, and known for professional integrity, to lead the transitional period.

This arrangement could bring all South Sudanese political actors into one big family tent. A caretaker government could bring all pockets of legitimacy, including representatives of internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees, as well as the diaspora, together to participate in a national dialogue.


2.Acceptable scenario: Government of national unity: Under an acceptable scenario, South Sudan may usher in a transitional government of national unity similar to that of Kenya (2008-2013) and Zimbabawe (2009-2013), where the ruling and opposition parties share power.

South Sudan risks facing another civil war and a greater humanitarian disaster, if peace negotiations fail 

• A government of national unity composed of the warring groups is highly probable, given that a stable central government is vital in order to prevent further violence and the total collapse of the South Sudanese state.

3.Bad scenario: Status quo

• The continuation of the current situation constitutes a bad scenario, where the incumbent SPLM group in government continues to stay in power. With such dispersed centres of legitimacy, the status quo is unsustainable unless the SPLM/A is reconstituted afresh.

4. Worst case scenario: Total civil war

• After so many years of guerrilla war against the north, a warrior culture has taken root in South Sudan. This perhaps explains why reports about political violence in regional areas are so frightening.

• Equally disturbing is the brutal manner in which organisational differences within the ruling SPLM have been handled, thus triggering a mutiny against its leadership. Evidence indicates that the situation is tragic, volatile and so dangerous that an even stronger helping hand is necessary to save the country from sliding towards civil war and humanitarian disaster. 

• Such assistance is also necessary to build confidence and peace among South Sudan's various conflicting parties to give a chance for them to put their respective houses in order, and divert the country from its present course towards further suffering and total state failure.